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  1. alexw.substack.com

    Betting on unknown unknowns still requires a deep ability to execute. But Scale has a track record of delivering unknown unknowns, and it would be the wrong bet to think that will stop. Scale is trying to predict the future, so we bet on unknown unknowns.
    • The Testing Unknown Unknowns - by Jit Gosai

      I like visualising the model not in a 2x2 matrix but linearly with just three categories: Known-knowns, Known-unknowns, and Unknown-unknowns. I tend to leave off Unknown-knowns to keep things simple. Some teams also combine these into the Unknown-unknowns. When you visualise this grid linearly, you see how each relates to the other. I find the ...

  2. morningstar.com

    Jul 8, 2024Betting on unknown future events may be the next big thing in hedging your investments Provided by Dow Jones Jul 8, ... If this sort of political betting were to continue, if could incentivize bad ...
  3. marketwatch.com

    Jul 8, 2024Market Extra Betting on unknown future events may be the next big thing in hedging your investments New exchanges allow people to trade event contracts, adding credibility to a relatively new ...
  4. en.wikipedia.org

    "There are unknown unknowns" is a phrase from a response United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld gave to a question at a U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) news briefing on February 12, 2002, about the lack of evidence linking the government of Iraq with the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups. [1]
  5. blog.rjmetrics.com

    Tackling the Unknown Unknowns is the future of your business. The progression of Unknown Unknowns. ... It's tough to tell at the beginner if your early adopters are representative of a market segment worth betting on, or just a few curious eyes you happened to attract. In the excitement of acquiring the first handful of users, this tends to ...
  6. identityelement.blog

    In effect, if a player knows he has an edge in a betting game and is aware of the probabilities and payouts of the corresponding probability distribution, ... But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category ...
  7. qualityeng.substack.com

    Nov 3, 2024I like visualising the model not in a 2x2 matrix but linearly with just three categories: Known-knowns, Known-unknowns, and Unknown-unknowns. I tend to leave off Unknown-knowns to keep things simple. Some teams also combine these into the Unknown-unknowns. When you visualise this grid linearly, you see how each relates to the other. I find the ...
  8. lloydmelnick.com

    An example of missing an unknown unknown: The 9/11 attacks. Admittedly, creating games, although stressful sometimes, is not nearly as important as many other uses of analytics. So using 9/11 as an example should not in any way equate social gaming to such an event, but 9/11 does point to how important it is to creatively think of unknown (but ...
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